To anwser these questions we need to dig deep deep into Hungarian politics.
"What do you think about his last meeting with Vladimir Putin (one month ago)?"
To be honest, I did not care about much, because that meeting did not had "weight".
As far as I know 3 major issues were debated:
1, The Hungarian army is planning to replace the old helicopters, and the Russians offered to upgrade them instead of replacing. However this has been unofficially rejected.
2, The planned expansion of the Paks (city) nuclear power plant (I will refer to it as Paks 2 later)
3, gas deal
However, the results of the 2nd and the 3rd issues were nearly a fact before the negotiations even started.
"Do you think they made an alliance or was it just a show?"
Neither.
Hungary is not an ally of Russia, but it was not just a show.
The main issue was the 2nd one, the" Paks 2" issue.
The expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant is estimated to cost around 10 billion euros. That is a lot of money. The Russian Federation offered a low cost loan to finance the construction, which must be payed back later.
This issue is very sensitive, both in internal policitics and foreign relations.
Foreign relations:
The EU is generally sceptic about any big Russian projects within the EU not to mention, the fact that it had concernes that the new power plant can operaty only with Russian nuclear fuel. And this monopoly is against the laws on European Union Energy Security.
About the internal politics:
Many people here are sceptic about Paks 2 mainly because of 3 reasons:
1, This construction along with the Russian loan will increase the Russian influence on the Hungarian government and diplomacy.
2, Many people think that the government should promote green energy instead
3, The government had encrypted all data on Paks 2 for more than 20 years. Everything. Including the costs
Therefor many people fear that the Paks 2 project will be overpriced, and will become a general "pay out" project for the clients and puppets of the ruling political party. And the 20 years encryption will ensure that all crimes commited under the construction will be obsolate by the time the papers will be available for the public.
So, as we can see that this last issues is extremely sensistive. Therefor Orbán together with Putin needed to sign some papers and decleare that the project will not be abandoned, and they will defend the project against any threats like the EU and the (non existing) Hungarian opposition.
"Do you think people will accept a turn toward Russia? "
I don't think so.
That is true that Hungary has serious economic relations with Russia, however the number one economic partner of Hungary is the EU.
More than 80% of Hungarian exports go to the EU, not to mention that Germany and Hungary has a very strong economic relationship in terms of investment and finance.
At this very moment, Hungary is completely tied to the European Union, which is mutually benefitial.
The Russian Federation can not offer an alternative against the EU for Hungary.
However, Russia is also an important trading partner. Therefor our best interest is to cooperate with Russia and cease any hostilities with the Russian Federation, not to mention, that the Russian embargo seriously hurt Hungarian agricultural exports, and many Hungarian companies (e.g OTP, Richter, MOL) have subsidiaries and interests in Russia
About the society:
1/3rd of the pop likes Russia and Putin (exspecially the far right)
more than 1/3rd hates it
nearly 1/3rd don't give sht
The people who like Russia are very sceptical about the EU, however they are not aware of the economic situation of the EU, Russia and Hungary. They keep denying the fact that without the EU the Hungarian economy would collapse, therefor most of the people are just lets say "believers".
The Fidesz party lead by Orbán Viktor knows both that thes people are mostly "believers", and they alse know that the EU is vital to Hungary and Russia cannot offer an alternative against the EU.
Because of this, they partly use the Russian-Hungarian negotiations as a political tool to gain voters from the far rigth (Jobbik party).
In nutshell, Hungary's interest is to have a fair cooperation with the Russian Federation, but taking the current political situation in the EU ,Hungary will not move into the direction of Russia. Also a freindship or alliance with Russia would be very difficult to achieve due to historical reasons, as many people fear Russia, and will do everything to stay away from it.
(Russian intervention in the Hungarian revolution of 1848-49, the post WW2 occupation of Hungary and supporting the communists, the retaliation of the revolution of 1956) |