I was following the auctions on the past weekend, and as well had some own interest in the subdivisions offered. So I came up with my own valuation of the business - in a roughcut discounted cashflow approach:
#7779: Bauxite Quarry 1
#7780: Bauxite Quarry 2
#7781: Oil Well 1
#7782: Oil Well 2
All respective Auctions closed on Nov3 - just filter and sort by date or Id (7779-7782).
After conclusion, I noted the sales price went up to factor 10x beyond my own valuation - which raised the question on how the other participants actually approached valuation.
I'd be very interested to know: 1) Why have you participated in bidding ? (purpose of buying) 2) How did you set your maximum value you are willing to offer ?
Sure, this is "business secret", and may trigger examination by the antitrust authorities. Yet an interesting learning on the state of Virtonomics game dynamics
I'll go first myself: I have some spare cash, looking for investment opportunities. Even though I do not have a shortage of respective resources for my own production activities - taking up more mining activities would help mining qualification growth. Still I would want to be able to exploit the auctioned reserves profitably, offering outputs on the market. That's why I judged not to offer at the successful auction bid prices.
4.11.2019, 21:05
Everything is simple.
If I can buy raw materials cheaper in the sweat market, I buy them in the wholesale market.
If I can buy raw materials cheap at auction, I buy them at auction.
I wonder how you can calculate the value of a bauxite mine in the current market?
There is no bauxite available on the market (at a normal price, that is).
There is - however - a stockpile of 445 days worth of consumption.
There is an overproduction of about 33%, so this stockpile is growing.
So, at some point, one might expect supply to appear again... At what price??
@JustNash - I like your analysis! And would agree, based on the facts, the market is far from "efficient": Piles of supply, yet no market availability (if not at a >4000x margin).
If investing to sell on the market: better dig up the Bauxite quickly and sell today ! Would prices tumble? ...who knows.
If you need Bauxite to supply your own factory: I would not rely on the market for the same reason.
Yeah Bauxite in particular continues to be pretty much the highest cost ore on both Mary and Lien. Even after the introduction of Polymetalic ore a few years back it continues to out value the rest of the group.
So that said Bauxite tends to auction pretty high as well.
9.11.2019, 05:49
Prices will not fall. We need to look not only at production and stocks.