Or whoever is the next President of the United States. They are going to have to deal with major problems. The trade imbalance with China (among other countries). The US has lost it's industrial base. In order to bring jobs back, both of those are going to have to be addressed. The manner in which it is done is going to be significant. Many of these countries, in my opinion, are not going to let us get away with sectoral reciprocity. And without an industrial base, the economy would be massively dislocated if we try to go to a continental system a la Napoleon.
Immigration is a big issue. Too many presidents in the past have done amnesty programs. The sheer number of illegal aliens in this country have led to distortions in the free market workplace. The old saw about they do jobs no one wants is facetious. They are just doing them for less cash then those who are in this country legally would accept. Having had grandparents work at the Armour plant in Chicago, that justification is sheer nonsense. Corporations who employ illegal aliens are not paying them union wages, or benefits. Trying to return all of them to their countries of origin might be problematic. What do we do if they refuse to accept them? Declare war? Open massive refugee camps on our borders? And how much are we willling to pay to deport them? I'm not a big fan of building a wall across our borders. What keeps folks out, can just as easily keep us in. If politicians really wanted to get serious about immigration, they'd start with significant deterrents to corporations and companies hiring them. As an example, huge fines, and in egregrious situations, loss of the company charter and prison time for the folks doing the hiring. Or higher up in coercive or conspiratorial cases.
With the US debt climbing (both within the government and public) the US may reach a point under the next president where we default on our obligations. In this Trump might be better. He has more experience with debt, and going broke. That would be a massive blow to countries that still peg their currency to the dollar, leading them to go with China, exacerbating the trade balance. If this hits as the same time as Japan's econnomic crises (they are trying to print their way out of debt), with Europe still in economic shambles, we may face a worldwide depression at least as great as the one that ended the 20s.
In addition to the trade probem, China is starting to flex it's geopolitcal muscles. Both on it's own in the
Spratley Islands (historically claimed by our ally, The Phillipines), and that of it's puppet, North Korea. China has been devoting time to the problem of the United States since the Korean conflict. That's not me being paranoid, just real politics. Let's not forget, the British owed us a lot less money when we helped force them out of the Suez.
I'm not sure we have a candidate in any of the parties that is going to be equal to the task. Obama may have been our last chance to confront these problems in a timely manner. Too bad he made things worse. |