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List of forums -> Free communication (everything except serious game talk) -> Make your best guess: Oil Price 2016

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Your prediction: Oil Price for 2016 Dec 30

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Start: 30.12.2015, 08:33

End date: Not specified

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Topic created : 30.12.2015, 08:31

Last time edited : 1.02.2019, 18:08
jeka_igla
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Red Swarm LTD
 

 
Making predictions is fun, after all it is what economists do, right?
 
A player who will give the best (closest) prediction on price of OIL (Brent (ICE.Brent)/USD) after exactly one year from now (on 30 Dec 2016) will win small award: Oil industry certificate (+1 to mining qualification)
https://www.theice.com/products/219 (Commodity Futures)
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil-brent.aspx?timeframe=7d
 
Currently if i am not mistaken oil price is $37.31 (Just for the record)
 
To participate you just have to write a number (oil price prediction). It would be good if you not going to copy someone's prediction (at least make +-1 cent difference). You can post your predictions until Jan 30, 2016. Do not edit your post after this date.
 
Voting here just for fun and to determine average opinion.
 
Cool economists may also try to predict other things, like:
 
1. Annual GDP grow of a country (USA/China/Germany or any other)
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
2. Currency exchange rate to USD (Any currency you would like)
Or you can try to predict any other economic variable
 
Award will be given to closet oil price prediction only. Other predictions are just for fun.
Also if you want to discuss everything related to oil - this is your topic    

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7.01.2016, 08:13
wolf85
Three years with Virtonomics
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jeka_igla

I gave Germany a negative grow due to refugees expenses. Good will has a price.

the extra 16 billion spent on refugees will be a short term kenysian stimulation program :-)
 
though, germany could have spent it better in infrastructure or repaying debts. investing would make more sense as long as the ECB keeps the interest rate so low waiting for southern europe and france to get inflation.
 
in the longer term productivty will drop in germany because of the new minimum wages and the language refugees have a realtive high entrance barrier into the job market. finanlly i believe germany will profit from the refugees who make it. don't forget that in germany refugees have to renew their status every three years.
 
imf outlook
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/update/02/pdf/0715.pdf ...
 
oecd
http://www.oecd.org/economy/germany-economic-forecast-summary.htm ...
 
bundesbank
https://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Downloads/Publications/Monthly_Report_Articles/2015/2015_06_o ...
 
on ukraine it's just a guess from me i don't follow it so closely. ;-) 
 

7.01.2016, 13:06
JustNash
Twelve years with Virtonomics Jubilee Ten Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Macedonian common amphora Common amphora of Heraklion The winner in the nomination Your Way to success of the Industry Competition Winner of the Contest for Managers in the nomination "Knowledge is power!"
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Основатель г.Хасселт Jewelry Loupe Founder of Carcassonne Twelve years with Virtonomics Belgium soccer ball Traskor Swedish standard Viking helmet
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World Cuisines, IV-Vi places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places
Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, IV-VI, places
Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, II-III places Shagreen, II-III places Shagreen, II-III places Shagreen, II-III places
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even if the refugees did absolutely nothing, it wouldn't negatively affect Germany's GDP, right?
So anything any refugee does that creates value is beneficial to Germany's GDP. GDP per capita will drop if the refugees cost more to the german society than they create. (I'm assuming the refugees are ignored in the head count? If not, GDP per capita will drop more)
 
To be clear: this is pure economic chitchat. You cannot put people (and their lives) in a balance against something like money or let alone economic statistics...
 
As for all of these predictions all of these institutions make: is their ever anybody that analyses them in retrospect? I would like to know who can predict what with what accuracy. In fact, I would also like to know this about stock analysts. Eg. when you watch Bloomberg tv, all sorts of analysts are listened to as if they were oracles, but when do we get to see how accurate their jibber-jabber really was in the past?
 
And since this is just for fun: how about the weathergirl/man? I'd like to see some statistics on them too, coz they seem to be wrong awfully often! :-D 
 

7.01.2016, 23:14
roof.gray
 
My prediction for brent crude is $ 29.99 
 

11.01.2016, 12:57
pobotuga
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Matias Ltd.
m:
Vinhas
 
My prediction Oil Price, 2016 Dec 30:
 
46,69$
 
It will keep the low prices until November, and then go up after the US Presidential election.
Not much study involved...
 
Portugal will grow 2% and the exchange rate $/€ will be 1. 
 

11.01.2016, 14:44
JustNash
Twelve years with Virtonomics Jubilee Ten Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Macedonian common amphora Common amphora of Heraklion The winner in the nomination Your Way to success of the Industry Competition Winner of the Contest for Managers in the nomination "Knowledge is power!"
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Основатель г.Хасселт Jewelry Loupe Founder of Carcassonne Twelve years with Virtonomics Belgium soccer ball Traskor Swedish standard Viking helmet
Dalahast Deer horns Ingvar Kamprad Order Mathematic teacher Compass Festive glasses Jubilee Ten Silver Ten
For contribution to the development of Virtonomics The tender collider, VII-XV places The tender collider, VII-XV places The tender collider, VII-XV places The tender collider, IV-VI places The tender collider, IV-VI places World Cuisines, VII-XV places World Cuisines, VII-XV places
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Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, IV-VI, places
Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, II-III places Shagreen, II-III places Shagreen, II-III places Shagreen, II-III places
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/morgan-stanley-sees-20-a-barrel-oil-on-u-s-dollar- ...
 
now you know where I work :-)) 
 

12.01.2016, 18:38
AdrianG
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World Cuisines, IV-Vi places World Cuisines, IV-Vi places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, IV-VI, places
Shagreen, II-III places Shagreen, II-III places Platinum sponsor of the Contest for Tycoons Platinum sponsor of the Contest for Tycoons Platinum sponsor of the Contest for Tycoons
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AGM Corporation
 
21.47$ 
 

20.01.2016, 14:17
Mike1
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Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, II-III places Shagreen, II-III places Shagreen, II-III places Shagreen, II-III places Shagreen, the winner
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28.70 
 

23.01.2016, 05:59
gfife11
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$42.47 
 

8.08.2016, 20:02
4060899
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collins Incorporated
 
Brent price 62.43 
colten collins
 
 

11.08.2016, 02:38
Bertie-Wooster
Winner of the Contest for Managers in the nomination "Knowledge is power!"
One year with Virtonomics
 
Brent price 30/12
 
42.15 
 

11.08.2016, 21:10
VanguardScotland
Eleven years with Virtonomics
Eleven years with Virtonomics
 
$30.50 
 

13.08.2016, 19:33.     Subject: So close..........
Sulaco
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EDEN Corporation
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My prediction was:
 
"20 february 2016
 
BRENT $ 32
WTI      $ 31 "
 
20th of february was actually a Saturday so i took the previous days prices:
 
BRENT $ 33,01
WTI     $ 29,64
 
Almost got it.
May I have my cookie please?
 
By the way i found an awesome game, its called "town of salem". Just type it in and you will find it easily. 
 

15.08.2016, 08:30
Bacaka2
One year with Virtonomics
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Telecom Incorporated
 
I guess 45,8 
 

3.10.2016, 03:01
Feefifoo
Three years with Virtonomics
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$41 
 

20.12.2016, 17:56
JustNash
Twelve years with Virtonomics Jubilee Ten Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Macedonian common amphora Common amphora of Heraklion The winner in the nomination Your Way to success of the Industry Competition Winner of the Contest for Managers in the nomination "Knowledge is power!"
One year with Virtonomics
Основатель г.Хасселт Jewelry Loupe Founder of Carcassonne Twelve years with Virtonomics Belgium soccer ball Traskor Swedish standard Viking helmet
Dalahast Deer horns Ingvar Kamprad Order Mathematic teacher Compass Festive glasses Jubilee Ten Silver Ten
For contribution to the development of Virtonomics The tender collider, VII-XV places The tender collider, VII-XV places The tender collider, VII-XV places The tender collider, IV-VI places The tender collider, IV-VI places World Cuisines, VII-XV places World Cuisines, VII-XV places
World Cuisines, IV-Vi places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places
Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, IV-VI, places
Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, IV-VI, places Shagreen, II-III places Shagreen, II-III places Shagreen, II-III places Shagreen, II-III places
Platinum sponsor of the Contest for Tycoons Platinum sponsor of the Contest for Tycoons Platinum sponsor of the Contest for Tycoons Platinum sponsor of the Contest for Tycoons Platinum sponsor of the Contest for Tycoons Platinum sponsor of the Contest for Tycoons Platinum sponsor of the Contest for Tycoons Platinum sponsor of the Contest for Tycoons
Platinum sponsor of the Contest for Tycoons Founder of the city Sikasso Macedonian Silver amphora Bronze amphora of Heraklion The winner of the Industry Competition The winner in the nomination Your Way to success of the Industry Competition The winner of the Storm of regions nomination of the Industry Competition The winner of the Standard of Virtonomics nomination of the Industry Competition
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we're in the final stretch here. Looks like I was a little off with my prediction of $18 :-D
 
GMoney ($61) and Peterke ($54) appear to be in the best positions to claim the Nostradamus prize... 
 

List of forums -> Free communication (everything except serious game talk)-> Make your best guess: Oil Price 2016

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