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List of forums -> Free communication (everything except serious game talk) -> Make your best guess: Oil Price 2016

Humor, love, politics, economics, culture and everything that is not about tycoon games

Voting:  

Your prediction: Oil Price for 2016 Dec 30

Voting duration:

Start: 30.12.2015, 08:33

End date: Not specified

Voting continues
- $ 1 - 9
 
1
- $ 10 - 19
 
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- $ 20 - 29
 
6
- $ 30 - 39
 
8
- $ 40 - 49
 
18
- $ 50 - 59
 
8
- $ 60 - 69
 
2
- $ 70 - 79
 
1
- $ 90+
 
3
- $ 80 - 89
 
1

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Topic:

Topic created : 30.12.2015, 08:31

Last time edited : 1.02.2019, 18:08

jeka_igla
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Making predictions is fun, after all it is what economists do, right?
 
A player who will give the best (closest) prediction on price of OIL (Brent (ICE.Brent)/USD) after exactly one year from now (on 30 Dec 2016) will win small award: Oil industry certificate (+1 to mining qualification)
https://www.theice.com/products/219 (Commodity Futures)
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil-brent.aspx?timeframe=7d
 
Currently if i am not mistaken oil price is $37.31 (Just for the record)
 
To participate you just have to write a number (oil price prediction). It would be good if you not going to copy someone's prediction (at least make +-1 cent difference). You can post your predictions until Jan 30, 2016. Do not edit your post after this date.
 
Voting here just for fun and to determine average opinion.
 
Cool economists may also try to predict other things, like:
 
1. Annual GDP grow of a country (USA/China/Germany or any other)
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
2. Currency exchange rate to USD (Any currency you would like)
Or you can try to predict any other economic variable
 
Award will be given to closet oil price prediction only. Other predictions are just for fun.
Also if you want to discuss everything related to oil - this is your topic    

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30.12.2015, 09:26

Last time edited : 30.12.2015, 09:41

jeka_igla
Four years with Virtonomics
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Example of prediction (My prediction):
 
Oil Price, 2016 Dec 30: $33.33
 
 

30.12.2015, 10:59

JustNash
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fun topic! So, I'll make a "fun" prediction: $18.18!
 
Why:
* given the low prices, countries pumping up the black gold are suffering budget issues. To counter these, they need to pump up more
* competing energies are getting cheaper and need to be squashed by the evil dark forces aka the oil industry thru low oil prices
* the self-proclaimed good guys benefit from a weaker (financial) position of so-called "evil" countries like russia
* demand: who needs oil anyway? You don't need it to heat your house anymore (we just had the warmest december ever). You don't need it to run your car engine (where would you go, there's terrorists everywhere and you can talk to your "friends" via facebook or skype anyway)
* rising interest rates (US) will make it more expensive to buy oil futures, to invest in stocking infrastructure, ...
 

Some serious stuff:
* you should indicate which oil price you are referring to: Brent? WTI? I assume we will be talking about the spot price?
* it should be considered a rule that whoever edits his post containing his prediction is banned from the competition 
 

30.12.2015, 11:35

mapa_falsh
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m:
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My prediction: $ 22.22 
 

30.12.2015, 13:21

Last time edited : 31.12.2015, 00:53

jeka_igla
Four years with Virtonomics
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Black Friday wallet Shagreen, VII-XV places Seven years with Virtonomics
Five years with Virtonomics
m:
Red Swarm LTD
 
I was actually talking about Brent, but it is fine to give prediction on WTI or other kind as long as you mention what kind of Oil is in ur prediction.
 
Winner will be determined by the difference between actual and predicted price so it is actually doesn't matter which oil are we talking about. Just if you don't specify, let's assume Brent crude ICE
 
https://www.theice.com/products/219 ... (Commodity Futures)
Price: http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil-brent.aspx?timeframe=7d ...
 
GDP from here: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG ...
 
* it should be considered a rule that whoever edits his post containing his prediction is banned from the competition
Posts can be edited untill Jan 30, 2016. Aftert that it will be cheating Ridiculously 
 

1.01.2016, 01:29

sapiano
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Oil Price, 2016 Dec 30: $42 
http://virtonomics.com/mary/main//income/1013697][/url]
 

1.01.2016, 03:26

peterke
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$ 54 
 

1.01.2016, 12:52

wolf85
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$ 43
 
that would be my bet :-) 
 

4.01.2016, 01:38

lfcmj
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52$ My guess 
 

6.01.2016, 00:55

Last time edited : 6.01.2016, 00:56

jeka_igla
Four years with Virtonomics
Two years with Virtonomics
Black Friday wallet Shagreen, VII-XV places Seven years with Virtonomics
Five years with Virtonomics
m:
Red Swarm LTD
 
Cool economists may also try to predict other things, like:

Let me try to predict 2016 GDP growth just for fun Ridiculously
 
USA +2.6%
China +6.9%
Russian Federation -1.2%
United Kingdom +3.1%
Germany -0.1% (Yeah!)
Greece +1.8%
Ukraine -4.5%
India +7.7%
 
 

6.01.2016, 01:12

G_Money33
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61 
 

6.01.2016, 10:10

wolf85
Three years with Virtonomics
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jeka_igla
Cool economists may also try to predict other things, like:

Let me try to predict 2016 GDP growth just for fun Ridiculously
 
USA +2.6%
China +6.9%
Russian Federation -1.2%
United Kingdom +3.1%
Germany -0.1% (Yeah!)
Greece +1.8%
Ukraine -4.5%
India +7.7%

i disagree partly because i think Germany will get a small plus 0.2 and Ukraine's loss will not be that big after they had to calculate all lost output from crimea and the east in last year, it will be more in the range from -2.0 to +0.5 :-) 
 

6.01.2016, 10:57.     Subject: crude price

sulll
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skulll sdBD
 
my prediction is say around 65$
 
its real low rytt now is cause saudi decline to reduce their production and they have been pumping in the same amount
where in iran who was banned suddenly joined pumping in aswell
saudi is paying real loss for it , but i think they cant continue bearing the loss ...
 
but with tension escalating between iran and saudi ,,
also saudi fighting yemen on backyard which is hold of hezbollah indirectly ally of iran.
i think so called civil war is bound to happen in the remaining middle east countires 2
 
so i guess it mite pump up ...
 
just my analysis not conclusions.. 
 

6.01.2016, 19:12.     Subject: oil+GDP

Last time edited : 6.01.2016, 19:13

Sulaco
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20 february 2016
 
BRENT $ 32
WTI      $ 31
 
GDP growth in 2016:
Trinidad and Tobago -3% 
 

6.01.2016, 19:34

TyStuFF
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30,81
 
No idea about oil prices, never interested me, apart from seeing the final processed price with silly taxes while filling up the car To you 
 

7.01.2016, 00:40

Last time edited : 7.01.2016, 00:51

jeka_igla
Four years with Virtonomics
Two years with Virtonomics
Black Friday wallet Shagreen, VII-XV places Seven years with Virtonomics
Five years with Virtonomics
m:
Red Swarm LTD
 
i disagree partly because i think Germany will get a small plus 0.2 and Ukraine's loss will not be that big after they had to calculate all lost output from crimea and the east in last year, it will be more in the range from -2.0 to +0.5 :-)
I gave Germany a negative grow due to refugees expenses. Good will has a price.
Ukraine had -6.8 (2014) and -9.0 (2015) according to
http://knoema.com/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2015-data-and-charts ...
So mine -4.5% is kinda very optimistic prediction Very we!
 
Another fun fact. Same topic in Russian forum shows that weighed average for Russian predictions there is about $35. Here people are much more optimistic about the oil price 
 

List of forums -> Free communication (everything except serious game talk)-> Make your best guess: Oil Price 2016

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