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Topic:

Topic created : 30.06.2015, 13:42

JustNash
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Any predictions? Comments? Opinions?   

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30.06.2015, 14:00

JustNash
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Since one cannot start such a thread without contributing to it:
 
Opinions:
The drachma used to depreciate against the german mark on a consistent basis. In my opinion this reflected a difference in competitiveness. To combine these economies in a single currency, in my opinion, is only possible if accompanied by some sort of fiscal transfers from Germany & co (leader of the northern block) to Greece (exclamation point of the Southern block).
With all that we've learnt about corruption and tax fraud in Greece, the people from the northern block are ever more reluctant to support them financially. To make matters worse: the people of Greece fell for the guile of communist Tsipras and a communist government was put into place. After battling communism for the largest part of the previous century, I think it is only normal that such a government won't get any support from anybody in the northern block...
 
Hence, in my opinion, the only solution for Greece is to leave the euro. That's not to say they should be thrown out, and certainly not hastily. There should be a consensus about this and the process should be coordinated. Greece should remain in the EU. That is if the communists are overthrown...
 

Comments:
I sincerely hope the goings on of this week won't have catastrophical consequences. The Greek economy has already weakened so much. About one sixth of GDP comes from tourism. This will definitely take a blow, right when the high season starts. Normal everyday transactions have become difficult. This week of "bank holiday" might kill so many businesses that a domino effect might not be stopped even if banks did reopen next week...
My thoughts go out to all the Greek families...
 

Predictions:
It seems a yes vote is expected on Sunday. This should lead to the resignation of the communists, giving breathing room to the negotiators to come up with realistic solutions. I'm quite sure that negotiators on "our side" will be much more cooperative with new leaders than they were with the commies... Especially since most of the greek debt is in "our" hands, apparently. EU members and ECB...
Part of the debt will be erased. Another part will be rolled over to longer term debt. Hence we will continu to finance the competitiveness gap... 
 

30.06.2015, 21:24

Melchior2008
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I know someone who just came back from a stay in Greece as a tourist, and this person said the tourism sector is not much affected by the crisis in the country. As long as there is no terrorism there, I think the tourism will be fine. It only counts for a sixth of their economy, as you said, and that's the negative point : they need to develop it or find solutions to save the rest of their economy.
 
Also, I've heard that tourists don't have problems getting cash from banks there, as their banks are foreign banks and their accounts are in other countries.
 
If they return to their own currency, which I think would be good for them, the tourism sector might get a boost, as their money would be devalued. And that would also mean more value for foreign tourist money spent there. The thing is that they should look at their whole economy and see if it's a good idea overall. I think it might be, but I'm no expert. 
 

30.06.2015, 21:25

Wonson
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I prefer not to interpret everything by just adding currencies and numbers, or even don't care which politician calls himself being attached to what principles when there are important cultural and knowledge-based barriers for development. In my first memories comes those poor African countries who dreamed of independence for long time but crashed in a few years when those "bad" Europeans left their lands, and the harder they try to catch up the more they sink. In their simple minds they could go to the mines, extract the diamonds and sell one ounce of diamonds for certain amounts of dollars and that's economics!
 
On the other hand, Germans could fly to the moon and land human on asteroids 70 years ago. When WW2 stopped them doing so, they moved to United States and did what they could under NASA flag. Now they do it in their home country and the EU they built. No war and no earthquake could stop them from doing what they were determined to do. But why these smart people foolishly expect the Greek to move with the pace they can is a mystery to me. The idea of attaching Greece to Deutschland Empire (EU) was just foolish right from the start.
 
I hope Ukrainian leaders also reconsider joining that EU. Just the fact that some Ukrainian politicians run a few chocolate and chips factories with success, does not mean they should be tied to Germany with a tight rope. They will just crash much faster than Greece, and no one will remember what those janitor-politicians of the world said today and the promises they made. 
 

30.06.2015, 23:33

G_Money33
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Greece put a ban on shorting Greek stocks.  Screws up risk hedging everywhere that is not intended to take a bet against Greece. 
 

1.07.2015, 00:41

TyStuFF
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In my opinion they should quit with the whole European Union and get back our proper coins. Countries like Greece take others down for no reason at all; They can easily get back on their feet anyway, as long as they produce food and are able to eat, an economy can fix itself again.
 
I as a citizen of a relatively rich country am forced to work till higher ages than ever before and have to pay premium taxes because of "poor / less wealthy" countries like Greece. And this will go on for ages, because all the politicians want to be able to smile to each other.
 
Because of the European Union I already lost a job, because Polish people are cheaper; And now I'm in a situation that I can't even find a job which I can physically handle.
 
Also I see more and more people who barely can or just can't buy any food, which is quite a new thing for us, and to be perfectly hones I belong to this category. So well I don't really care that much about Greece, countries should focus on their own citizens instead of involving in others.
 
I have 1 Euro in my wallet, bank accounts on minus, can't afford my health insurance, and in Greece people are still able to get tiny bits out of the ATM: Congratulations to them! 
 

1.07.2015, 01:53

Last time edited : 1.07.2015, 01:55

Pyrex
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I think Greece is using fear to try to get a better deal which, I think, they don't deserve. They are pushing for another haircut with the argument that their debt is unsustainable, when their cost of debt is smaller than in Portugal (4.3% GDP in Greece vs 5% GDP in Portugal), or any other south country. So what they call unsustainable is 4.3% of GDP. This is not unsustainability, this is stealing.
 
I understand their political views are incompatible with what the EU is forcing them too. But no one is obligated to lend money to a country that clearly doesn't want to repay it and these are the conditions for the institutions to lend money at a loss.
 
And the EU and the Euro can survive the Grexit. It will be turmoil in the financial markets for some time but the economic part won't be affected much. However, Portugal will suffer from a lot of speculation and we have upcoming elections where a political party with a very Syriza-like programme might win (it's a technical-draw atm). Sure hope I'm wrong as our economy is a bit on the edge.
 
But the ones that will suffer most will be the Greeks for sure. In recent history, the defaults never lead to good times. Argentina is an example of what COULD be a supereconomy. 
 

1.07.2015, 08:32

Desolation72724
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EU was a failure from start. It was just a matter of time till it would collapse. Joint monetary policies? How can one rate be a solution for all the countries in the EU? Today countries can't even fix their own interest rates until it's approved by the European Central Bank, and the immediate effects of this are ENORMOUS.
 
The P.I.G.S (Portugal, Italy, Greece & Spain) are a ticking time bomb, it's just a matter of when. 
 

1.07.2015, 12:54

JustNash
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Pyrex
I think Greece is using fear to try to get a better deal which, I think, they don't deserve. They are pushing for another haircut with the argument that their debt is unsustainable, when their cost of debt is smaller than in Portugal (4.3% GDP in Greece vs 5% GDP in Portugal), or any other south country. So what they call unsustainable is 4.3% of GDP. This is not unsustainability, this is stealing.
 
I understand their political views are incompatible with what the EU is forcing them too. But no one is obligated to lend money to a country that clearly doesn't want to repay it and these are the conditions for the institutions to lend money at a loss.
 
And the EU and the Euro can survive the Grexit. It will be turmoil in the financial markets for some time but the economic part won't be affected much. However, Portugal will suffer from a lot of speculation and we have upcoming elections where a political party with a very Syriza-like programme might win (it's a technical-draw atm). Sure hope I'm wrong as our economy is a bit on the edge.
 
But the ones that will suffer most will be the Greeks for sure. In recent history, the defaults never lead to good times. Argentina is an example of what COULD be a supereconomy.

The upcoming elections in Portugal and Spain (Podemos) are a main reason imo why european leaders don't want Tsipras to realise any form of success. They want to send a clear message to the people in Portugal and Spain: you have two options:
1. a traditional vote: we will continue to smother you in this here single currency
2. a communist vote: we will drop you like a stone and you'll be off even worse
 
So let's hope the voters choose option 1 and serious action will be taken to improve things for the less fortunate... For example: German workers could start to demand getting paid what they deserve. That would lower their relative competitiveness. This cannot be extended too far though: the world is MUUUCH bigger than the EU... 
 

1.07.2015, 13:05

JustNash
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Desolation72724
EU was a failure from start. It was just a matter of time till it would collapse. Joint monetary policies? How can one rate be a solution for all the countries in the EU? Today countries can't even fix their own interest rates until it's approved by the European Central Bank, and the immediate effects of this are ENORMOUS.
 
The P.I.G.S (Portugal, Italy, Greece & Spain) are a ticking time bomb, it's just a matter of when.

I don't agree with this at all. My country (Belgium) is the best example of how things between very different communities can still work out. Here it's done with substantial fiscal transfers (every person in my region forks up EUR 5000 a year for the people of the south).
 
Don't forget that there are ever more fiscal transfers within the EU as well. Rich countries help the less fortunate to a certain degree. The poorer the member state, the higher the percentage of its economy that's subsidised with EU money.
 
This isn't necessarily altruism. It also increases the markets for the richer countries! It increases stability. And helps improve the situation depicted by TyStuFF. If the living standard of people in Poland improves, they are less likely to compete for Dutch jobs... Be it by Polish people migrating or be it by jobs moving to Poland for cost efficiency. As the standard of living improves in Poland, life/wages will become more expensive and less jobs will move away.
 
The EU also offers stability for smaller and economically weaker nations. The borrowing cost in Belgium would probably not be as low as it is today if we weren't in a Union. With a sovereign debt of 100% of our GDP, interest rates that are 100bp lower, offer us 1% more wealth! 
 

1.07.2015, 13:45

Wonson
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JustNash
The EU also offers stability for smaller and economically weaker nations.
Injecting money into an unstable economy is like injecting codeine into a painful body, just keeps the pain away for a few days, not a cure.
 
I still believe money is a number, certainly important for accounting, but it's of no importance when it comes to economics. In virtonomics' words: "grow your qualifications, money will come on it's own feet" 
 

1.07.2015, 14:31

Last time edited : 1.07.2015, 14:39

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Default is a calculated risk by whoever has enough money to lend it to someone else.  Greedy, rich suckers keep delaying stabilisation and re-development of Greece. Give them a couple of islands and the boot. 
 

1.07.2015, 14:59

Last time edited : 1.07.2015, 14:59

JustNash
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Wonson
Injecting money into an unstable economy is like injecting codeine into a painful body, just keeps the pain away for a few days, not a cure. I still believe money is a number, certainly important for accounting, but it's of no importance when it comes to economics. In virtonomics' words: "grow your qualifications, money will come on it's own feet"
how often can you read a 3 sentence post with 3 excellent quotes? Cudos! 
 

1.07.2015, 22:09

G_Money33
History teacher Buriti palm Watering can Production: master Snow Leopard Nine years with Virtonomics For contribution to the development of Virtonomics Merchant coat
Pupmkin Mask Pupmkin Mask Pupmkin Mask Vampire Mask World Cuisines, IV-Vi places Mayor Mayor Mayor
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Dimitris Katsikas - Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy
Greece's cash trap
 
The economy is frozen and we're in a liquidity trap, where everyone wants to hold euros.
 
Investment is non-existent and consumption has collapsed.
 
People have stopped submitting tax income statements and with the banks closed the government cannot receive anything. Supermarkets don't know what to do with the cash they receive.
 
We are not in the eurozone bailout programme so the European Central Bank cannot increase funding to the banking system.
 
Credit agencies have reduced the ratings on Greek banks so they're almost junk and even if they have collateral to give they may not be able to get new funding. Plus, we are essentially in default of the IMF.
 
Even if there is a deal, capital controls will be here for some time because there would be a rush on the banks if they re-opened.
 
An interim solution would only calm the symptoms of the crisis. Under a more permanent deal difficulties would remain for some weeks.

 
This is why you don't want to fall in the whirlpool.  Climbing out is next to impossible. 
 

3.07.2015, 00:43

Sulaco
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In my opinion I cannot feel sorry for the Greeks.
 
The Greeks have lived for decades on a living standard which they could not afford based on their economy. This unsustainable living standard was financed by the state through public subsideries, which was constantly raising the state debt level. Now its over.
 
They recieved about 300 billion Euro aid ( 2.5 times my country, Hungary's annual GDP), and what have they done?
Nothing. They have spent it on pensions and other things. 
 

3.07.2015, 09:28

JustNash
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For contribution to the development of Virtonomics The tender collider, VII-XV places The tender collider, VII-XV places The tender collider, VII-XV places The tender collider, IV-VI places The tender collider, IV-VI places World Cuisines, VII-XV places World Cuisines, VII-XV places
World Cuisines, IV-Vi places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places Shagreen, VII-XV places
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So what happens if they vote OXI (no) on Sunday? As far as I know, they cannot be expelled from the euro (any country can use any currency they like: if Zimbabwe declares the euro as their official currency, nobody can stop them). And I very much doubt that they could be thrown out of the European Union...
 
So, they'd just not pay back their debt (which they aren't able to do in any event). Most of this debt is to other EU countries. I hope they at least say "thank you for the 300Bn you've given us and we subsequently wasted in 5 years time".
 
All they need then is another fool to give them money. But that's a tough nut to crack in any event. Whether they repay their current debt or not... 
 

List of forums -> Free communication (everything except serious game talk)-> Greece: what's your opinion?

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