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Price of Oil going...

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Start: 2.04.2015, 15:58

End date: 2.05.2015, 15:58

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Who gives a S#$%
 
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Permanently lower
 
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Down then take off
 
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Up Up and only Up
 
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Topic created : 2.04.2015, 15:58

G_Money33
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So, I have some funds I need to invest and I'm bullish on Oil (real world, not in-game).
 
But am I wrong to be bullish? Will Oil stay lower going forward? Or is a rebound coming?
 
Vote away and post deeper thoughts. You are now my investment advisers!
 

 
P.S. I'll actually be investing in Vanguard Energy - Oil Industry Companies, not the commodity directly    

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2.04.2015, 16:20

Last time edited : 2.04.2015, 16:51

wolf85
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It depend's on what you bet :-)
 
The oil supply is much higher than what is needed, also storage is high in the U.S. That would suggest that oil prices stay low for at least two years but wouldn't get much lower because of production cost and much more important to build new fracking oil well's. the cost for capital will rise with higher interest rates. so everything that is already build now can produce for less than future supplies.  - that's the economic side
 
on the other side you have conflicts like yemen which will let prices rise and the iran deal which could keep the oil price down. of course don't forget populistic speeches in greece of the goverment. If common sense prevails and all the speeches are only for show you can bet one a stronger economie, if not euro zone could have to make hard choice. which wouldn't be bad in the long term i guess but in the short term could hurt the economies world wide.  Very we!
 

p.s. i think that the odds for a iran nuclear deal are very slim. to much fear in the jewish and arab community and it is also bad for business to have new competition on the oil market. i guess both will be lobbying against it. Greece will come to it senses. so my prognosis is that both will take time and oil prices will stay low for a while but not for more than two years. in the end it is your money and your decision good luck! Very we! 
 

2.04.2015, 16:40

Last time edited : 2.04.2015, 16:42

Pyrex
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I'm against speculating but...
 
How long is your investment horizon? I think in the short term it is a very speculative investment because of the uncertainty around it.
 
Long term, well, I would say we're now in the bust of an economic cycle (too much supply and stock).
Eventually, these low prices will make demand rise again (alternative energies and economic cars don't look so attractive anymore) and supply go down (there are oil extraction methods that aren't profitable with the current prices). With this, I think we will eventually return to the bust Well 
 

2.04.2015, 20:10

Last time edited : 2.04.2015, 20:18

JustNash
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anybody that thinks they know more about what's going on than Goldman Sachs do, should follow their information. For the rest of us: whatever we do is nothing more than a bet, much like what you do in the casino.
 
That being said: Goldman Sachs don't know about the destructive earth quake that's coming to Oklahoma City. At least 10 large buildings will collapse, killing 100s of innocent americans. By default of arguments to stick it to terrorists or Russians, fracking will get the full blame. Fracking companies will be bombed by the US military services, destroying much of the current excess supply. This will cause oil prices to go up.
 
(just chitter chatter, alright, :-D I don't wish that earthquake upon anybody)
 
(also: China is the world's second largest oil consumer; its economy is still growing at 6% a year; don't be mistaken about the impact this number can have over the course of a few years) 
 

2.04.2015, 23:39

Last time edited : 2.04.2015, 23:52

jeka_igla
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As a Russian i hope that prices will go up soon, it hurting our "economy" badly
 
Honestlly it is hard to say but within 1-2 years i feel like price will to up to 80-120 as it was and even highter
 
50 is just not realistic, reservs are limited and supply is still very high. In the mean time alternative enegy sourses developing too slow
 
I heard that prime cost of oil for americans is around 60-80, for Russians it s around 80-90 (In our annual budget price set as 80), arabs are simular. So no oil pruducers benefit from such low prices now and they drop em to kick Putin out of Kremlin, or to capture market share, or i dont even know why but this fall is not forever, that's for sure
 
Now it s a perfect time to sell gold if u had it cuz gold and oil prices moving in reverse
 
I think that there is almost no way prices gonna fall further, but making predictions regarding stock market is a Russian roulette Ridiculously I'd buy oil now if i could (ExxonMobil, bp, shell)
 
In my college we looked at the annyal report of RD Shell. This company doing pretty good compare to huge arabic or russian producers so u might wanna look at it. I'd look at annual reports of each big companies to find out about debt ratio and stuff like this if u planing to buy their shares 
 

3.04.2015, 04:04

Pyrex
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http://www.cnbc.com/id/102326971 ...  
 

3.04.2015, 06:03

Last time edited : 11.04.2015, 06:13

jeka_igla
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I was almost right Very we!
And i wouldn't trust CNBC, i'd look at other sourses, for exaple this one
 
http://graphics.wsj.com/oil-producers-break-even-prices/ ...
 
Here are magor producers according to wiki (Based on CIA Fact book i guess)
 

 
Anyway, as i said, below $50 is very painful for everyone, except saudi arabia with weird $10 break even which i am really suspicious about
 
Wall street Journal says that BE is $106.00 for them, i have no idea where CNN took this $5-10 from
 
The question is, how long can they work with such low prices? A year? May be but why should they? When Russians and OPEC deside to raise prices they can just decrease supply which will be like 30-50% of total world's supply and prices would go up. They determine prices and i have no idea what are they thinking Ridiculously Most of Oil produced in US used in US am i right? So they not really selling it out much 
 

3.04.2015, 06:16

NobodyAtAll
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The cost of producing tight oil (fracking, etc), has fallen extremely quickly as technology has advanced. The prime cost per barrel in the US is down to 40-60 for most production, the 60-80 accounts for a very small percentage of wells, and it has only been falling.
 
Riyadh and in turn OPEC have traditionally kept the oil price inflated, but they have chosen to do so no longer. Every time they have cut production to maintain the price they have lost market share. Given that Riyadh's cost is about the lowest in the world, if not the lowest, they can survive a lower price than anyone else, theoretically. The low oil price also hurts Iran and Russia, which in turn supports their policy goals in the middle east in regards to countering Shia influence. They are adamantly anti-Assad and Iran. Russia being pro-Assad and getting hurt by the low price is a nice benefit for them, but Iran is their main rival. Desire to maintain market share is surely a factor as well.
 
Despite the low prices needed for many wells to be profitable, there is the conflating effect that many petrostates need much higher prices in order to balance their national budgets. Current oil prices are below that price for essentially every petrostate, giving them all an incentive to raise the price, if possible. Whether that is enough incentive for them to work together remains to be seen.
 
In the short to medium term, we have no real alternative to oil. Solar, wind, and other renewables are not really competitors. Oil is mostly used for transport, not energy. So when it comes to transport, oil's market is secured for awhile yet to come.
 
There are many other factors impacting the oil markets, and what the sum of their impacts will be is very hard to portend. My best guess is that oil will recover in the mid-term, but in the long term advances in extraction, increases in transport efficiency, and eventually alternatives will relegate it to a relatively low price. How many years before the recovery and how many more until the downturn I do not know.
 
All that being said, I am invested in that Vanguard fund, although it represents a relatively small amount of my portfolio (around 2%).
 
I'm happy to discuss investing or global geo-politics further via PM if you are interested, but nothing I say constitutes investment advice, investment entails risk including potential loss of principal, etc etc :-P 
 

3.04.2015, 08:15

Last time edited : 3.04.2015, 14:34

Wonson
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NobodyAtAll: The low oil price also hurts Iran and Russia, which in turn supports their policy goals in the middle east in regards to countering Shia influence.
 
There's more than one thing I need to explain about this statement:
 
* I don't know about Russia and every other petrostate, but higher oil price does not suit islamic republic (and it's not Iran as I will explain shortly). That's caused by the fact that that petrostate sells crude oil, and needs to import back oil products. An increase in the oil price will cause increase in oil products and that will do more harm to the budget than the few dollars it will instantly bring in. This can be the scenario for some of third world petrostates, but not all. It's not the crude oil that matters, but the products.
 
* Those people that you see on the TV and read about in the newspapers are not Iran, they are just islamic republic  and they prefer to be known like that themselves. And we also prefer to call them islamic republic. To have an idea of their hatred toward us is this guy who used to spit on the word Iran, and also many others among them show tremendous hatred in various ways. FYI Iranians do not support military activity in Syria or Yemen.
 
* And about "Iran and Russia countering shia influence": it's exactly the opposite. To wink 
 

3.04.2015, 15:55

NobodyAtAll
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@Wonson, sorry if my sentence structure was unclear. Hurting Tehran and Russia is clearly not supporting Tehran's or Russia's goals, the "their" refers back to Riyadh. Countering Shia influence is certainly a policy goal of Riyadh's, just ask the Houthis in Yemen. (Yes, I am aware they are Zaydi if we want to get technical)
 
As for Tehran being happy with the low prices, that is certainly not what Tehran seems to be claiming. Some quotes:
'"We will not forget which countries schemed to lower the price of oil," the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Ali Larijani warned darkly during a visit last month to Damascus, the Syrian capital. '
 
'Iran's Rouhani also called the drop in prices "politically motivated" and a "conspiracy" against the interests of the region. "Iran and people of the region will not forget such conspiracies, or in other words, treachery against the interests of the Muslim world," he was quoted as saying, during a Cabinet meeting.'

Tehran is largely self-sufficient in refining, it was once true they relied heavily on imports of refined petroleum products, but it is true no longer.
Almost all of Iran’s product consumption was locally produced. In 2013, FGE estimates that Iran imported almost 17,000 bbl/d of petroleum products, of which roughly 85% was gasoline. Over the past several years, Iran's gasoline import dependence has decreased significantly as a result of increased domestic refining capacity and subsidy cuts.'
'Total oil consumption averaged approximately 1.75 million bbl/d in 2013, almost 3% higher than the year before. In the past, Iran had limited domestic oil refining capacity and was heavily dependent on imports of refined products, especially gasoline, to meet domestic demand. In response to international sanctions and the resulting difficulty in purchasing refined products, Iran expanded its domestic refining capacity. As of September 2013, Iran’s total crude oil distillation capacity was nearly 2.0 million bbl/d (source: http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=ir ... )

I am aware of the name issue, but I figured people would have an easier time understanding me if I use Iran, I'll just use Tehran to avoid the issue entirely. Sorry if I caused any offense. I am aware that governments do not always act on the will of their people and that many citizens may oppose a state's actions.
 
@jeka The different break even prices are for the country's budget to be balanced vs the price for extraction to be profitable. The $10 for Saudi Arabia is the break even on the oil production itself, the $106 is the break even on the overall budget of the country. Oil sales can be profitable without sufficing to balance the country's budget, and the budget can obviously be balanced by means other than oil sales, if necessary. 
 

3.04.2015, 19:23

Wonson
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Those quotes cannot be regarded as something we want to construct a serious discussion on. Those people will just start to shout and claim, no matter what's it all about. A sly reporter would have immediately asked "what's the current price of oil?"
 
The news about fuel production capacity are just fake. 
 

5.04.2015, 11:11

Desolation72724
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NobodyAtAll
@Wonson, sorry if my sentence structure was unclear. Hurting Tehran and Russia is clearly not supporting Tehran's or Russia's goals, the "their" refers back to Riyadh. Countering Shia influence is certainly a policy goal of Riyadh's, just ask the Houthis in Yemen. (Yes, I am aware they are Zaydi if we want to get technical)
 
As for Tehran being happy with the low prices, that is certainly not what Tehran seems to be claiming. Some quotes:
'"We will not forget which countries schemed to lower the price of oil," the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Ali Larijani warned darkly during a visit last month to Damascus, the Syrian capital. '
 
'Iran's Rouhani also called the drop in prices "politically motivated" and a "conspiracy" against the interests of the region. "Iran and people of the region will not forget such conspiracies, or in other words, treachery against the interests of the Muslim world," he was quoted as saying, during a Cabinet meeting.'

Tehran is largely self-sufficient in refining, it was once true they relied heavily on imports of refined petroleum products, but it is true no longer.
Almost all of Iran’s product consumption was locally produced. In 2013, FGE estimates that Iran imported almost 17,000 bbl/d of petroleum products, of which roughly 85% was gasoline. Over the past several years, Iran's gasoline import dependence has decreased significantly as a result of increased domestic refining capacity and subsidy cuts.'
'Total oil consumption averaged approximately 1.75 million bbl/d in 2013, almost 3% higher than the year before. In the past, Iran had limited domestic oil refining capacity and was heavily dependent on imports of refined products, especially gasoline, to meet domestic demand. In response to international sanctions and the resulting difficulty in purchasing refined products, Iran expanded its domestic refining capacity. As of September 2013, Iran’s total crude oil distillation capacity was nearly 2.0 million bbl/d (source: http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=ir ... )

I am aware of the name issue, but I figured people would have an easier time understanding me if I use Iran, I'll just use Tehran to avoid the issue entirely. Sorry if I caused any offense. I am aware that governments do not always act on the will of their people and that many citizens may oppose a state's actions.
 
@jeka The different break even prices are for the country's budget to be balanced vs the price for extraction to be profitable. The $10 for Saudi Arabia is the break even on the oil production itself, the $106 is the break even on the overall budget of the country. Oil sales can be profitable without sufficing to balance the country's budget, and the budget can obviously be balanced by means other than oil sales, if necessary.

As an Arab, let me give you my 2 cents on this topic.
 
Oil sales is what balances our budget. We have no other commodities to trade except oil and maybe dates (who could balance a budget on date sales right?).
As far as Saudi Arabia goes, it's just a sand state. Sand fore miles and miles. And under the sand is the black gold. Apart from that, they have literally nothing to offer. Here in Dubai atleast we have the tourism industry taking a start, but the bulk of our surplus is derived from oil sales.
I originally belong from Oman, it's a kingdom to the right of Yemen on the atlas and we do not support the military intervention. We are the only state in the whole of Gulf who is not taking part in the military intervention. We don't support it not because we are Shia sympathizers (we belong to a different sect altogether actually), but because War is never the answer. If it was, Afghanistan would be under Russia since the 80s. Iraq would have been a peaceful state and so would Syria.
The war is not going to drive the prices up. Saudi will cut a deal with the US to ensure there is no US intervention in the Gulf as far as Yemen goes and in return, the oil prices will be kept low and construction projects will be handed to the US entities.
 
As far as Russia goes, Russia can single handedly cripple the fuel supply in half of Europe. That's probably one reason nobody interfered in the Ukraine/Russia matter. They know if you piss the Russians off, they just break you. 
 

5.04.2015, 16:06

Last time edited : 2.05.2015, 16:29

Wonson
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Good thing someone brought up Saudi Arabia again. While everyone's blaming those shale companies for producing some unwanted oil, nobody is allowed to ask why Saudi Arabia is allowed to produce 9,000,000 barrels of oil daily? Who decides if that 9,000,000 barrels are the surplus or those fracking oils?
 
JN mentioned US will bomb those fracking companies. That would be too extreme, but his words contain a fact (imo) and shows white house's directions during these last 40 years. Just reading Los Angeles Times, yesterday:"...Obama must remind them our historical commitment to these countries." (refering to Arab countries, suggesting White House is a historical servant to those countries and must remain so). With such publications no need to guess what happens if White House's overlords order them to bomb American/Canadian companies.
 
I would like to conclude that oil is a political product, as many others also do, and it's price does not obey the law of demand. The price will be balanced at a point between the wills of lords in Saudi Arabia, the problem of Russia, white house's degree of commitment  and those annoying fracking companies. Me thinks "commitment" will prevail and prices will rise. When? I don't know Well 
 

6.04.2015, 15:40

Sulaco
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As far as I know, Saudi Arabia s oil production costs are the lowest in the world, around 6$ per barrel, however the transportation also cost money driving up the break even price to at least 9$. Most of the oil( not shale oil)  producing countries want to protect their market share, to drive the investors away from shale oil production, in order to sustain their position in the oil market. So i would bet, that oil prices will be kept around 50-55$ per barrel in the next 1-2 years.
 
An other important thing is the TTIP negotiations. Recently, the EU wants the USA to lift the ban on resource exports ( the export of oil and gas is banned in the USA), this way the EU could establish oil supply from the US, if tensions are kept high with Russia. If the ban is lifted, the US shale oil companies could break into the European market, now dominated by Norway and Russia.
Russia and Norway both give around 30% of the oil consumed in Europe, Algeria and Nigeria are also important oil suppliers. So the EU could find new alternatives to Russian oil and gas if Russia stop the oil supply to the EU. 
 

2.05.2015, 16:32

Wonson
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haha!
Sulaco, why did you change your prediction? You said price will be kept around $40-50 before. Now I see you have edited the text to $50-$55. To wink 
 

2.05.2015, 17:53

Last time edited : 2.05.2015, 17:53

Rogue_Cat
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Are you sure? When someone edits a message the text "Last time edited :" is displayed, which doesn't seem to be the case for that. To you
 
EDIT * Example with mine. 
 

List of forums -> Free communication (everything except serious game talk)-> Oil Prices (Real World)

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